An Enduring Ceasefire Among the Israeli State and the Palestinian Territories? We have Seen This Pattern – The Result Was More Conflict

So, what year do we find ourselves? A US president, following an extended period of quiet support, has finally intervened to stop an Israeli military offensive that has transformed large areas of a city in the Middle East to debris, resulting in numerous individuals killed and sparking international condemnation.

This military action has been preceded by a succession of assaults on the Israeli nation. Now, under pressure from the US administration, the Israel's leader, a right-leaning figure with a gift for appealing language and an intense sense of Zionist historical purpose, has consented to a ceasefire.

Historical Parallels

The year is not present day, but 1982. The urban center is not present-day Gaza, but Beirut, Lebanon. The US leader is President Reagan, not today's leadership.

There are numerous variations between what happened in Lebanon more than four years past and what has happened in the Gaza Strip in the past two years. The militant assault of last year, which caused 1,200 and included two hundred fifty captured, differs significantly with the relatively paltry actions of the Palestinian leadership in the time prior to military entry of the Lebanese nation.

Striking Parallels

Some are uncanny. Reagan finally contacted the Israeli leader, stating to him that what was happening in the capital was "a holocaust" and indicating the diplomatic ties between their states could be gravely damaged if the fighting carried on.

During that period, similar to current times, the conflict developed in real time on millions of screens. Many reporters flew into the city to cover for the first time an Middle Eastern conflict without information control by the combatants.

Results and Outcomes

The events following the conversation from American leadership and the halt in fighting in the city is revealing. The PLO, its divisions and leaders were scattered across vast distances and a various states.

Washington then pulled out international forces – an infringement of the arrangement with Arafat. The elected leader, the country's recently chosen head of state and Israel's chosen ally, was assassinated by Syrian intelligence.

Middle Eastern Changes

Similar patterns emerged across the rest of the region. By the late seventies, the more secular and progressive ideas that had appeared to provide the hope of a changed reality in the Middle Eastern nations years before were weakened.

The consequences of this were quickly apparent, in short order

In various nations, Israel and the America now encountered adversaries who were significantly more intractable, deadly and effective than the progressive groups and independence advocates of the past.

Western Response

Internationally, the outcomes of this were unexpected. During the seventies, international experts and officials had tried to analyze what led to violent extremism.

Afterward, in the start of the eighties, this ceased. Political leaders in the US, the Britain and additional countries were no longer interested in "fundamental sources" of conflict.

Current Similarities

Last week, reports indicate that today's officials informed Israeli counterparts that Israel could not confront global opinion and admitted Palestinian aspirations for a state.

Similarly was an echo of 1982. In the wake of the military incursion of the neighboring country, past government told the nation that the strength of its military alone could not "establish permanent resolution" and recognized "proper claims of the Palestinian population."

But a US-led diplomatic initiative supposed to address those complaints went nowhere. Overseas, Palestinian leadership watched helplessly.

Global attention in the Middle East diminished. Israel opposed compromises. Later, there was the major unrest, and the creation of further armed organizations.

• The repetitions of history offer thought-provoking insights for contemporary diplomatic initiatives
• Permanent settlements require dealing with underlying issues rather than brief halts
• Local circumstances continue to develop in multifaceted and often unpredictable ways