Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent In Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The typical figure of everyday murders per month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent government statistics. But, security experts have advised that homicide numbers might not indicate improved national security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in the previous September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen over these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than the United States. However, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety plan for an seemingly sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, public safety researchers cautioned that using murder data to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is particularly true given the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“This would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of daily killings was additionally an issue because it may obscure periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

However despite these actions, Mexico remains beset by high violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the nation to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas concluded.