Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Within the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.